Dynamical SPQEIR model assesses the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19 epidemic outbreaks

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Author Name

Francoise Kemp

Stefano Magni

Atte Aalto

Laurent Mombaerts

Alexander Skupin

Christophe Ley

Professor of Mathematical Statistics at Ghent University

Field of Study: Math , Published 4 Projects

COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 SEIR Model Epidemiology Applied Statistics

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Against the current COVID-19 pandemic, governments worldwide have devised a variety of non-pharmaceutical interventions to suppress it, but the efficacy of distinct measures is not yet well quantified. In this paper, we propose a novel tool to achieve this quantification. In fact, this paper develops a new extended epidemic SEIR model, informed by a socio-political classification of different interventions, to assess the value of several suppression approaches. First, we inquire the conceptual effect of suppression parameters on the infection curve. Then, we illustrate the potential of our model on data from a number of countries, to perform cross-country comparisons. This gives information on the best synergies of interventions to control epidemic outbreaks while minimising impact on socio-economic needs. For instance, our results suggest that, while rapid and strong lock-down is an effective pandemic suppression measure, a combination of social distancing and contact tracing can achieve similar suppression synergistically. This quantitative understanding will support the establishment of mid- and long-term interventions, to prepare containment strategies against further outbreaks. This paper also provides an online tool that allows researchers and decision makers to interactively simulate diverse scenarios with our model.

COVID-19 47 Projects
Epidemiology 25 Projects
Non Pharmaceutical
Non Pharmaceutical 1 Project
Public Health
Public Health 1 Project
Interventions 1 Project
Risk Assessment
Risk Assessment 1 Project